Summary
Daniel introduces basic probability: likely, unlikely, impossible, and certain. Covers simple probability as a fraction and uses spinners and bags of colored marbles as models. A clear 9-minute introduction for grades 4–6.
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Teaching resources
Discussion questions
Discussion
Probability tells us how likely an event is to happen.
- What makes something certain vs. impossible vs. likely vs. unlikely?
- If a bag has 3 red marbles and 7 blue ones, how likely is it to pick red?
- If you flip a coin 10 times and get heads 7 times, does that mean the next flip is more likely to be tails? Why or why not?
Quick work-a-long
Vocabulary: probability, likely, unlikely, certain, impossible, outcome, equally likely.
Try it: Make a spinner with 4 sections (2 red, 1 blue, 1 green). Predict how often each color will land, then spin 20 times and record results.